Friday, May 11, 2012

MoneyScience News

MoneyScience News


Research Library: Risk Premia Harvesting Through Momentum

Posted: 11 May 2012 04:52 AM PDT

This paper won the NAAIM 2012 Wagner Award for Advances in Active Investment Management   Gary Antonacci Portfolio Management Associates Abstract Momentum is the premier market anomaly. It is nearly universal in its applicability. Rather than focus on momentum applied to particular assets or asset classes, this paper explores momentum with respect to what makes it most effective. We do...

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Published / Preprint: Super-exponential bubbles in lab experiments: evidence for anchoring over-optimistic expectations on price

Posted: 11 May 2012 04:47 AM PDT

We analyze a controlled price formation experiment in the laboratory that shows evidence for bubbles. We calibrate two models that demonstrate with high statistical significance that these laboratory bubbles have a tendency to grow faster than exponential due to positive feedback. We show that the positive feedback operates by traders continuously upgrading their over-optimistic expectations of...

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Published / Preprint: On the non-stationarity of financial time series: impact on optimal portfolio selection

Posted: 11 May 2012 04:47 AM PDT

We investigate the possible drawbacks of employing the standard Pearson estimator to measure correlation coefficients between financial stocks in the presence of non-stationary behavior, and we provide empirical evidence against the well-established common knowledge that using longer price time series provides better, more accurate, correlation estimates. Then, we investigate the possible...

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Published / Preprint: Singularity strength based characterization of financial networks

Posted: 11 May 2012 04:47 AM PDT

Financial markets are well known examples of multi-fractal complex systems that have garnered much interest in their characterization through complex network theory. The recent studies have used correlation based distance metrics for defining and analyzing financial networks. In this work the singularity strength is employed to define a distance metric and the existence of hierarchical structure...

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Published / Preprint: Hierarchical structure and time-lag correlation in Worldwide Financial Markets

Posted: 11 May 2012 04:47 AM PDT

Recently, many studies indicated that the minimum spanning tree (MST) network whose metric distance is de?ned b 979 y using correlation coe?cients have strong implications on extracting infor- mation from return time series. However in many cases researchers may hope to investigate the strength of interactions but not the directions of them. In order to study the strength of interaction and...

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Published / Preprint: Statistical Outliers and Dragon-Kings as Bose-Condensed Droplets

Posted: 11 May 2012 04:47 AM PDT

A theory of exceptional extreme events, characterized by their abnormal sizes 885 compared with the rest of the distribution, is presented. Such outliers, called "dragon-kings", have been reported in the distribution of financial drawdowns, city-size distributions (e.g., Paris in France and London in the UK), in material failure, epileptic seizure intensities, and other systems. Within our...

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Published / Preprint: Communication activity in a social network: relation between long-term correlations and inter-event clustering

Posted: 11 May 2012 04:47 AM PDT

The timing patterns of human communication in social networks is not random. On the contrary, communication is dominated by emergent statistical laws such as non-trivial correlations and clustering. Recently, we found long-term correlations in the user's activity in social communities. Here, we extend this work to study collective behavior of the whole community. The goal is to understand the...

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Published / Preprint: Graph spectra and the detectability of community structure in networks

Posted: 11 May 2012 04:47 AM PDT

We study networks that display community structure -- groups of nodes within which connections are unusually dense. Using methods from random matrix theory, we calculate the spectra of such networks in the limit of large size, and hence demonstrate the presence of a phase transition in matrix methods for community detection, such as the popular modularity maximization method. The transition...

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Research Library: Hedge Funds and Chapter 11

Posted: 11 May 2012 04:40 AM PDT

Wei Jiang Columbia Business School - Finance and Economics Kai Li University of British Columbia - Sauder School of Business; China Academy of Financial Research (CAFR) Wei Wang Queen's School of Business Abstract This paper studies the presence of hedge funds in the Chapter 11 process and their effects on bankruptcy outcomes. Hedge funds strategically choose positions in the capital...

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Research Library: Men are from Mars, Women are from Venus: Director Gender and Mergers and Acquisitions

Posted: 11 May 2012 04:32 AM PDT

Winner of the Best Doctoral Student Paper in Behavioral Finance Award at the 2011 Annual Meeting of the Academy of Behavioral Finance & Economics Maurice D. Levi University of British Columbia - Sauder School of Business Kai Li University of British Columbia - Sauder School of Business; China Academy of Financial Research (CAFR) Feng Zhang University of Utah - David Eccles School of...

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Research: Hedge funds more like guardian angels than vultures when it comes to bankruptcy

Posted: 11 May 2012 04:25 AM PDT

New University of British Columbia research shows that – contrary to popular opinion – hedge funds have a positive influence when investing in U.S. companies filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.read more...

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RT @BusinessSchools: @Cassinthenews: 'Europe should take responsibility for regulating banksâ http://t.co/g0dz52C1

Posted: 11 May 2012 03:52 AM PDT

moneyscience: RT @BusinessSchools: @Cassinthenews: “Europe should take responsibility for regulating banks” http://t.co/g0dz52C1

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For the Rich, Income Inequality and Volatility Is a Good Bet - http://t.co/5fDk0eii #tcm

Posted: 11 May 2012 03:52 AM PDT

moneyscience: For the Rich, Income Inequality and Volatility Is a Good Bet - http://t.co/5fDk0eii #tcm

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Thanks Tim: RT @TCJUK: @moneyscience Thorp and Shannon actually did this in 1961 and published in 1966 http://t.co/02Tqoamx #gambling

Posted: 11 May 2012 03:52 AM PDT

moneyscience: Thanks Tim: RT @TCJUK: @moneyscience Thorp and Shannon actually did this in 1961 and published in 1966 http://t.co/02Tqoamx #gambling

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Published / Preprint: Diffusion of innovations in social interaction systems. An agent-based model for the introduction of new drugs in markets

Posted: 11 May 2012 03:40 AM PDT

The existence of imitative behavior among consumers is a well-known phenomenon in the field of Economics. This behavior is especially common in markets determined by a high degree of innovation, asymmetric information and/or price-inelastic demand, features that exist in the pharmaceutical market. This paper presents evidence of the existence of imitative behavior among primary care physicians in...

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Financial Expertise as an Arms Race - http://t.co/ife83M97 #tcm

Posted: 11 May 2012 03:19 AM PDT

moneyscience: Financial Expertise as an Arms Race - http://t.co/ife83M97 #tcm

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Volatility and Premiums - Fama & French - http://t.co/bNW4jFqS #tcm

Posted: 11 May 2012 03:09 AM PDT

moneyscience: Volatility and Premiums - Fama & French - http://t.co/bNW4jFqS #tcm

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@Cassinthenews: âEurope should take responsibility for regulating banksâ http://t.co/g0dz52C1

Posted: 11 May 2012 02:58 AM PDT

BusinessSchools: @Cassinthenews: “Europe should take responsibility for regulating banks” http://t.co/g0dz52C1

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Blog Post: TheFinancialServicesClub: Who moved my rock?

Posted: 11 May 2012 02:58 AM PDT

I often use two discussion points by way of background when talking about the future.read more...

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What Scientists Read. How does literature influence scientific thought and practice - http://t.co/FevX2qNk

Posted: 11 May 2012 02:28 AM PDT

BusinessSchools: What Scientists Read. How does literature influence scientific thought and practice - http://t.co/FevX2qNk

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Research Library: Predicting the outcome of roulette

Posted: 11 May 2012 02:18 AM PDT

Michael Small, Chi Kong Tse Abstract There have been several popular reports of various groups exploiting the deterministic nature of the game of roulette for profit. Moreover, through its history the inherent determinism in the game of roulette has attracted the attention of many luminaries of chaos theory. In this paper we provide a short review of that history and then set out to determine...

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Doyne Farmer on the Physics of Beating Roulette

Posted: 11 May 2012 02:12 AM PDT

Michael Slezak writes at New Scientist:read more...

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Reputational Contagion and Optimal Regulatory Forbearance

Posted: 11 May 2012 02:05 AM PDT

Dr. Morrison read mathematics at Brasenose College, Oxford, 1985 – 88. Between 1988 and 1995 he worked for Anderson Consulting (now Accenture), Morgan Grenfell and SG Warburg. He then took an MSc at Imperial College in the Foundations of Information Technology. He completed his doctorate at Saïd Business School on ‘Reputation, Opportunism and Crowd Behaviour in Debt Markets’ in...

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Does the leading model of open access #publishing discriminate against academics unable to pay publication charges? http://t.co/4gRxl3kx

Posted: 11 May 2012 01:58 AM PDT

BusinessSchools: Does the leading model of open access #publishing discriminate against academics unable to pay publication charges? http://t.co/4gRxl3kx

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A PhD candidate asks how best to prepare for and present an essay in an interview via Skype. Responses in comments at http://t.co/yTLXE2xO

Posted: 11 May 2012 01:58 AM PDT

BusinessSchools: A PhD candidate asks how best to prepare for and present an essay in an interview via Skype. Responses in comments at http://t.co/yTLXE2xO

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Where are all the innovators in academia? http://t.co/8fP1RsOm

Posted: 11 May 2012 01:58 AM PDT

BusinessSchools: Where are all the innovators in academia? http://t.co/8fP1RsOm

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Arab Spring good for UAE business schools http://t.co/WzsVXKj2

Posted: 11 May 2012 01:58 AM PDT

BusinessSchools: Arab Spring good for UAE business schools http://t.co/WzsVXKj2

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Getting Science 'Geeks' Into the Corner Office - http://t.co/28DY94tk

Posted: 11 May 2012 01:58 AM PDT

BusinessSchools: Getting Science 'Geeks' Into the Corner Office - http://t.co/28DY94tk

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@KelleySchool Inks Analytics Deal With Indian Institute of Management -@IIML http://t.co/LpsTcQKc

Posted: 11 May 2012 01:58 AM PDT

BusinessSchools: @KelleySchool Inks Analytics Deal With Indian Institute of Management -@IIML http://t.co/LpsTcQKc

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Association of African Business Schools holds conference in Lagos http://t.co/pkCdf8eG

Posted: 11 May 2012 01:58 AM PDT

BusinessSchools: Association of African Business Schools holds conference in Lagos http://t.co/pkCdf8eG

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The Financial Education Daily is out! http://t.co/TYlzia3F ⸠Top stories today via @ucberkeleynews @ricemba @wharton

Posted: 11 May 2012 12:26 AM PDT

BusinessSchools: The Financial Education Daily is out! http://t.co/TYlzia3F â–¸ Top stories today via @ucberkeleynews @ricemba @wharton

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Blog Post: TheAlephBlog: Yahoo Finance News

Posted: 10 May 2012 09:18 PM PDT

I want to call attention to News at Yahoo Finance.  I have used Yahoo Finance for 15 years and have found it valuable.  As time has gone on, Yahoo has added low value news sources like Seeking Alpha, Motley Fool, and Zacks.  These are websites that if I could eliminate them, it would be done already.read more...

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Blog Post: Falkenblog: Asness and Frazzini Make Simple Point on Value

Posted: 10 May 2012 07:26 PM PDT

Cliff Asness has been thinking, writing, and investing on value and momentum ideas since the late 1990's, and as the head of a successful hedge fund, it's fair to say he's one of the world's foremost experts on these equity factors. He and Andrea Frazzini recently put up a The Devil in HML's Details on the SSRN, so this is all new to me even though it has been around for a year elsewhere...

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Published / Preprint: Optimal retirement consumption with a stochastic force of mortality. (arXiv:1205.2295v1 [q-fin.RM])

Posted: 10 May 2012 05:32 PM PDT

We extend the lifecycle model (LCM) of consumption over a random horizon (a.k.a. the Yaari model) to a world in which (i.) the force of mortality obeys a diffusion process as opposed to being deterministic, and (ii.) a consumer can adapt their consumption strategy to new information about their mortality rate (a.k.a. health status) as it becomes available. In particular, we derive the optimal...

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Published / Preprint: Electricity price modeling and asset valuation: a multi-fuel structural approach. (arXiv:1205.2299v1 [q-fin.PR])

Posted: 10 May 2012 05:32 PM PDT

We introduce a new and highly tractable structural model for spot and derivative prices in electricity markets. Using a stochastic model of the bid stack, we translate the demand for power and the prices of generating fuels into electricity spot prices. The stack structure allows for a range of generator efficiencies per fuel type and for the possibility of future changes in the merit order of...

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Published / Preprint: The Valuation of Clean Spread Options: Linking Electricity, Emissions and Fuels. (arXiv:1205.2302v1 [q-fin.PR])

Posted: 10 May 2012 05:32 PM PDT

The purpose of the paper is to present a new pricing method for clean spread options, and to illustrate its main features on a set of numerical examples produced by a dedicated computer code. The novelty of the approach is embedded in the use of structural models as opposed to reduced-form models which fail to capture properly the fundamental dependencies between the economic factors entering the...

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Published / Preprint: Risk-Neutral Pricing of Financial Instruments in Emission Markets: A Structural Approach. (arXiv:1011.3736v2 [q-fin.PR] UPDATED)

Posted: 10 May 2012 05:32 PM PDT

We present a novel approach to the pricing of financial instruments in emission markets, for example, the EU ETS. The proposed structural model is positioned between existing complex full equilibrium models and pure reduced form models. Using an exogenously specified demand for a polluting good it gives a causal explanation for the accumulation of CO2 emissions and takes into account the feedback...

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Blog Post: iMFdirect: Making Sure Middle East Growth Is Inclusive

Posted: 10 May 2012 12:56 PM PDT

By Nemat Shafikread more...

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@icmacentre: Lateral Thinkers wanted http://t.co/31y9UOJD

Posted: 10 May 2012 12:52 PM PDT

BusinessSchools: @icmacentre: Lateral Thinkers wanted http://t.co/31y9UOJD

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FBI sees #Bitcoin payment network as an alarming haven for money laundering and other criminal activity http://t.co/et9yuwbj #tcm

Posted: 10 May 2012 12:02 PM PDT

fin_tech: FBI sees #Bitcoin payment network as an alarming haven for money laundering and other criminal activity http://t.co/et9yuwbj #tcm

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Blog Post: rob_daly: A Good Man Passes

Posted: 10 May 2012 10:42 AM PDT

On Monday, Dennis Fitch passed away.read more...

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It's not even #fractalfriday yet! RT @cstross: Wow! 3 minute fractal movie with sound track in 4kb of code: http://t.co/FeklCbje

Posted: 10 May 2012 08:28 AM PDT

fin_tech: It's not even #fractalfriday yet! RT @cstross: Wow! 3 minute fractal movie with sound track in 4kb of code: http://t.co/FeklCbje

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MT @terrapinntrades: Market Fairness, Financial Regulation and the FSA's Market Cleanliness Statistic - http://t.co/9qQIzR6R #hft #tcm

Posted: 10 May 2012 05:58 AM PDT

fin_tech: MT @terrapinntrades: Market Fairness, Financial Regulation and the FSA's Market Cleanliness Statistic - http://t.co/9qQIzR6R #hft #tcm

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Financial Technology News Report is out! http://t.co/Jdseecpa : Top stories today via @acuityrm @mc2technology @kirkwy @caplinsystems

Posted: 10 May 2012 05:58 AM PDT

fin_tech: Financial Technology News Report is out! http://t.co/Jdseecpa â–¸ Top stories today via @acuityrm @mc2technology @kirkwy @caplinsystems

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MBSâ retail expert reaches 7.2 million viewers

Posted: 10 May 2012 05:50 AM PDT