Friday, November 2, 2012

MoneyScience News

MoneyScience News


Blog Post: OlsenBlog: Trading Forex Is A Positive Sum Game

Posted: 02 Nov 2012 02:06 AM PDT

Have you ever played dice with a friend? Betting a fixed amount of money each turn, you win if the number on the top face of the die is one, two or three, your friend wins in all the three other cases. At any single point in time, the sum of all the profits and losses amount up to exactly zero. This is an example of a very simple zero sum game. Read the whole article on FXStreet.comread more...

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Published / Preprint: STATIC FUND SEPARATION OF LONGâTERM INVESTMENTS

Posted: 02 Nov 2012 01:51 AM PDT

This paper proves a class of static fund separation theorems, valid for investors with a long horizon and constant relative risk aversion, and with stochastic investment opportunities. An optimal portfolio decomposes as a constant mix of a few preference‐free funds, which are common to all investors. The weight in each fund is a constant that may depend on an investor’s risk aversion, but not...

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Published / Preprint: CLOSED FORM PRICING FORMULAS FOR DISCRETELY SAMPLED GENERALIZED VARIANCE SWAPS

Posted: 02 Nov 2012 01:51 AM PDT

Most of the existing pricing models of variance derivative products assume continuous sampling of the realized variance processes, though actual contractual specifications compute the realized variance based on sampling at discrete times. We present a general analytic approach for pricing discretely sampled generalized variance swaps under the stochastic volatility models with simultaneous jumps...

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Published / Preprint: FROM SMILE ASYMPTOTICS TO MARKET RISK MEASURES

Posted: 02 Nov 2012 01:40 AM PDT

The left tail of the implied volatility skew, coming from quotes on out‐of‐the‐money put options, can be thought to reflect the market’s assessment of the risk of a huge drop in stock prices. We analyze how this market information can be integrated into the theoretical framework of convex monetary measures of risk. In particular, we make use of indifference pricing by dynamic convex risk...

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Published / Preprint: SWAPTION PRICING IN AFFINE AND OTHER MODELS

Posted: 02 Nov 2012 01:39 AM PDT

This paper shows that Singleton and Umantsev’s method for swaption pricing in affine models can be simplified and extended to other models. Two alternative methods for approximating the option exercise boundary are introduced: one based on the multivariate Taylor series expansion, and the other based on duration‐matched zero‐coupon bond approximation. Applied to affine models and...

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Published / Preprint: THE EFFECT OF TRADING FUTURES ON SHORT SALE CONSTRAINTS

Posted: 02 Nov 2012 01:39 AM PDT

It is commonly believed that the trading of futures on a commodity enables the market to overcome short selling constraints on the spot commodity itself. This belief is embedded in the notion that trading strategies involving futures contracts enable traders to replicate the payoffs as if they were short the spot commodity. The purpose of this paper is to investigate this common belief in a...

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Published / Preprint: GENERAL PROPERTIES OF ISOELASTIC UTILITY ECONOMIES

Posted: 02 Nov 2012 01:39 AM PDT

This paper studies the class of single‐good Arrowâ€"Debreu economies in which all agents have isoelastic utility functions and homogeneous beliefs, but have possibly different cautiousness parameters and endowments. For each economy in this class, the equilibrium stochastic discount factor is an exponential function of the inverse mapping of a completely monotone function, evaluated at the...

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Published / Preprint: BLACKâSCHOLES REPRESENTATION FOR ASIAN OPTIONS

Posted: 02 Nov 2012 01:28 AM PDT

Asian options are securities with a payoff that depends on the average of the underlying stock price over a certain time interval. We identify three natural assets that appear in pricing of the Asian options, namely a stock S, a zero coupon bond BT with maturity T, and an abstract asset A (an “average asset”) that pays off a weighted average of the stock price number of units of a dollar at...

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Published / Preprint: DEFAULT AND SYSTEMIC RISK IN EQUILIBRIUM

Posted: 02 Nov 2012 01:27 AM PDT

We develop a finite horizon continuous time market model, where risk‐averse investors maximize utility from terminal wealth by dynamically investing in a risk‐free money market account, a stock, and a defaultable bond, whose prices are determined via equilibrium. We analyze the endogenous interaction arising between the stock and the defaultable bond via the interplay between equilibrium...

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Published / Preprint: PORTFOLIOS OF AMERICAN OPTIONS UNDER GENERAL PREFERENCES: RESULTS AND COUNTEREXAMPLES

Posted: 02 Nov 2012 01:27 AM PDT

We consider the optimal exercise of a portfolio of American call options in an incomplete market. Options are written on a single underlying asset but may have different characteristics of strikes, maturities, and vesting dates. Our motivation is to model the decision faced by an employee who is granted options periodically on the stock of her company, and who is not permitted to trade this...

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Published / Preprint: PRICING DERIVATIVES ON MULTISCALE DIFFUSIONS: AN EIGENFUNCTION EXPANSION APPROACH

Posted: 02 Nov 2012 01:27 AM PDT

Using tools from spectral analysis, singular and regular perturbation theory, we develop a systematic method for analytically computing the approximate price of a large class derivative‐assets. The payoff of the derivative‐assets may be path‐dependent. In addition, the process underlying the derivatives may exhibit killing (i.e., jump to default) as well as combined local/nonlocal...

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Published / Preprint: TIMEâCHANGED ORNSTEINâUHLENBECK PROCESSES AND THEIR APPLICATIONS IN COMMODITY DERIVATIVE MODELS

Posted: 02 Nov 2012 01:27 AM PDT

This paper studies subordinate Ornsteinâ€"Uhlenbeck (OU) processes, i.e., OU diffusions time changed by Lévy subordinators. We construct their sample path decomposition, show that they possess mean‐reverting jumps, study their equivalent measure transformations, and the spectral representation of their transition semigroups in terms of Hermite expansions. As an application, we propose a new...

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Published / Preprint: AN ONLINE PORTFOLIO SELECTION ALGORITHM WITH REGRET LOGARITHMIC IN PRICE VARIATION

Posted: 02 Nov 2012 01:15 AM PDT

We present a novel efficient algorithm for portfolio selection which theoretically attains two desirable properties:read more...

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Published / Preprint: BOUNDARY EVOLUTION EQUATIONS FOR AMERICAN OPTIONS

Posted: 02 Nov 2012 01:07 AM PDT

We consider the problem of finding optimal exercise policies for American options, both under constant and stochastic volatility settings. Rather than work with the usual equations that characterize the price exclusively, we derive and use boundary evolution equations that characterize the evolution of the optimal exercise boundary. Using these boundary evolution equations we show how one can...

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Published / Preprint: ADMISSIBILITY OF GENERIC MARKET MODELS OF FORWARD SWAP RATES

Posted: 02 Nov 2012 01:07 AM PDT

Our main goal is to re‐examine and extend certain results from the papers by Galluccio et al. and Pietersz and van Regenmortel. We establish several results providing alternate necessary and sufficient conditions for admissibility of a family of forward swaps, that is, the property that it is supported by a (positive) family of bonds associated with the underlying tenor structure. We also...

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Published / Preprint: GAME CALL OPTIONS REVISITED

Posted: 02 Nov 2012 01:07 AM PDT

In this paper, having been inspired by the work of Kunita and Seko, we study the pricing of δ‐penalty game call options on a stock with a dividend payment. For the perpetual case, our result reveals that the optimal stopping region for the option seller depends crucially on the dividend rate d. More precisely, we show that when the penalty δ is small, there are two critical dividends 0 <...

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Blog Post: TheFinancialServicesClub: Sayonara Osaka

Posted: 01 Nov 2012 06:59 PM PDT

So there we go, another year, another SIBOS.read more...

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Blog Post: Falkenblog: Lakoff Refuted

Posted: 01 Nov 2012 05:58 PM PDT

George Lakoff has a theory that Republicans are master manipulators of emotions by their clever framing of issues. He sometimes says we are able to evaluate ideas on their own, he emphasizes the fact that people unconsciously respond to word associations, and form their beliefs based on these clever marketing strategies (it's a bit like how Samuelson used to say he was in favor of a modest...

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Published / Preprint: The full-tails gamma distribution applied to model extreme values. (arXiv:1211.0130v1 [math.ST])

Posted: 01 Nov 2012 05:34 PM PDT

In this article we show the relationship between the Pareto distribution and the gamma distribution. This shows that the second one, appropriately extended, explains some anomalies that arise in the practical use of extreme value theory. The results are useful to certain phenomena that are fitted by the Pareto distribution but, at the same time, they present a deviation from this law for very...

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Published / Preprint: The role of the Model Validation function to manage and mitigate model risk. (arXiv:1211.0225v1 [q-fin.RM])

Posted: 01 Nov 2012 05:34 PM PDT

This paper describes the current taxonomy of model risk, ways for its mitigation and management and the importance of the model validation function in collaboration with other departments to design and implement them.

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Published / Preprint: A probabilistic numerical method for optimal multiple switching problem and application to investments in electricity generation. (arXiv:1210.8175v1 [math.NA] CROSS LISTED)

Posted: 01 Nov 2012 05:34 PM PDT

In this paper, we present a probabilistic numerical algorithm combining dynamic programming, Monte Carlo simulations and local basis regressions to solve non-stationary optimal multiple switching problems in infinite horizon. We provide the rate of convergence of the method in terms of the time step used to discretize the problem, of the size of the local hypercubes involved in the regressions,...

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Blog Post: iMFdirect: Seeing Our Way Through The Crisis: Why We Need Fiscal Transparency

Posted: 01 Nov 2012 07:43 AM PDT

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The Financial Education Daily is out! http://t.co/TYluKzUv &acirc;&cedil; Top stories today via @KelleySchool @VanderbiltOwen @ucdavismba

Posted: 06 Oct 2012 12:32 AM PDT

BusinessSchools: The Financial Education Daily is out! http://t.co/TYluKzUv â–¸ Top stories today via @KelleySchool @VanderbiltOwen @ucdavismba

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