Friday, February 6, 2015

MoneyScience News

MoneyScience News


Blog Post: ThePracticalQuant: Network structure and dynamics in online social systems

Posted: 05 Feb 2015 09:06 AM PST

Understanding information cascades, viral content, and significant relationships.[A version of this post appears on the O'Reilly Radar blog.]I rarely work with social network data, but I’m familiar with the standard problems confronting data scientists who work in this area. These include questions pertaining to network structure, viral content, and the dynamics of information cascades.At last...

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Published / Preprint: 05Feb/Credit risk management across sectors - report released by the Joint Forum

Posted: 05 Feb 2015 07:06 AM PST

Press release about the Joint Forum releasing report on credit risk management across sectors (5 February 2015).

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Vendor News: Statement: Infosys announces realignment of organizational structure

Posted: 05 Feb 2015 04:07 AM PST

Infosys today announced that it will realign its organizational structure to enhance the company’s agility in the market and sharpen its competitive differentiation across service lines. The realignment is effective from April 1, 2015.

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Global debts rise $57bn since crash

Posted: 05 Feb 2015 01:43 AM PST

Global debt has grown by $57tn or 17 percentage points of GDP or worldwide income since 2007 http://t.co/t4lmYeLJQQ — moneyscience (@moneyscience) February 5,…

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Battle of the Economics Bloggers

Posted: 05 Feb 2015 01:43 AM PST

"Battle of the Economics Bloggers" http://t.co/jtdkKihbmZ by @noahpinion — Arthur Charpentier (@freakonometrics) February 4, 2015

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Blog Post: TheFinancialServicesClub: The future of Visa and other card schemes

Posted: 05 Feb 2015 12:47 AM PST

Someone asked me yesterday: what do you think will happen to the card schemes in the future?read more...

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Published / Preprint: Equilibrium Pricing in an Order Book Environment: Case Study for a Spin Model. (arXiv:1502.01125v1 [q-fin.CP])

Posted: 04 Feb 2015 05:38 PM PST

When modelling stock market dynamics, the price formation is often based on an equilbrium mechanism. In real stock exchanges, however, the price formation is goverend by the order book. It is thus interesting to check if the resulting stylized facts of a model with equilibrium pricing change, remain the same or, more generally, are compatible with the order book environment. We tackle this issue...

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Published / Preprint: Estimating topological properties of weighted networks from limited information. (arXiv:1409.6193v2 [physics.soc-ph] CROSS LISTED)

Posted: 04 Feb 2015 05:38 PM PST

A fundamental problem in studying and modeling economic and financial systems is represented by privacy issues, which put severe limitations on the amount of accessible information. Here we introduce a novel, highly nontrivial method to reconstruct the structural properties of complex weighted networks of this kind using only partial information: the total number of nodes and links, and...

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Published / Preprint: Systemic risk analysis in reconstructed economic and financial networks. (arXiv:1411.7613v1 [physics.soc-ph] CROSS LISTED)

Posted: 04 Feb 2015 05:38 PM PST

The assessment of fundamental properties for economic and financial systems, such as systemic risk, is systematically hindered by privacy issues$-$that put severe limitations on the available information. Here we introduce a novel method to reconstruct partially-accessible networked systems of this kind. The method is based on the knowledge of the fitnesses, $i.e.$, intrinsic node-specific...

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World business, finance, and political news from the Financial Times - FT.com

Posted: 04 Feb 2015 06:09 AM PST

Democratising finance: vision for bitcoin is beginning to fade - http://t.co/KMrtnxUW2k http://t.co/nlxRIrE34z — John Lothian (@JohnLothian) February 4, 2015

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Standard & Poor's Is Sorry About That Credit Crisis

Posted: 04 Feb 2015 06:09 AM PST

If investors were defrauded, why are they still persuaded by S&P ratings? Because everyone was in on it? http://t.co/C7SxDRndi8 — John Kiff (@Kiffmeister)…

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Published / Preprint: Anchoring on Credit Spreads

Posted: 04 Feb 2015 04:41 AM PST

This paper documents that the path of credit spreads since a firm's last loan influences the level at which it can currently borrow. If spreads have moved in the firm's favor (i.e., declined), it is charged a higher interest rate than justified by current fundamentals, while if spreads have moved to the firm's detriment, it is charged a lower rate. We evaluate several possible explanations for...

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Published / Preprint: An equilibrium model for spot and forward prices of commodities. (arXiv:1502.00674v1 [q-fin.EC])

Posted: 03 Feb 2015 05:38 PM PST

We consider a market model that consists of financial investors and producers of a commodity. Producers optionally store some production for future sale and go short on forward contracts to hedge their future commodity price uncertainty. On the other hand, speculators invest in these contracts to diversify their portfolios. The forward and the spot equilibrium commodity prices are endogenously...

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Published / Preprint: Quasi-Centralized Limit Order Books. (arXiv:1502.00680v1 [q-fin.TR])

Posted: 03 Feb 2015 05:38 PM PST

A quasi-centralized limit order book (QCLOB) is a limit order book (LOB) in which financial institutions can only access the trading opportunities offered by counterparties with whom they possess sufficient bilateral credit. We perform an empirical analysis of a recent, high-quality data set from a large electronic trading platform that utilizes QCLOBs to facilitate trade. We find many...

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Published / Preprint: On the multiplicative effect of government spending (or any other spending for that matter). (arXiv:1502.00808v1 [q-fin.GN])

Posted: 03 Feb 2015 05:38 PM PST

There is, among the economist ecosystem, the idea of virtuous public spending as a form of promotion of economic growth. If we think on the way GDP is measured, it is not possible to get that conclusion because it becomes circular: measuring the money flow obviously will detect directly the public spending but always mixed with the flow of money from other sources. The question is how virtuous is...

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Published / Preprint: How volatilities nonlocal in time affect the price dynamics in complex financial systems. (arXiv:1502.00824v1 [q-fin.GN])

Posted: 03 Feb 2015 05:38 PM PST

What is the dominating mechanism of the price dynamics in financial systems is of great interest to scientists. The problem whether and how volatilities affect the price movement draws much attention. Although many efforts have been made, it remains challenging. Physicists usually apply the concepts and methods in statistical physics, such as temporal correlation functions, to study financial...

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Published / Preprint: An Optimal Multiple Stopping Approach to Infrastructure Investment Decisions. (arXiv:1502.00861v1 [q-fin.EC])

Posted: 03 Feb 2015 05:38 PM PST

The energy and material processing industries are traditionally characterized by very large-scale physical capital that is custom-built with long lead times and long lifetimes. However, recent technological advancement in low-cost automation has made possible the parallel operation of large numbers of small-scale and modular production units. Amenable to mass-production, these units can be more...

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Published / Preprint: A New Methodology for Estimating Internal Credit Risk and Bankruptcy Prediction under Basel II Regime. (arXiv:1502.00882v1 [q-fin.EC])

Posted: 03 Feb 2015 05:37 PM PST

Credit estimation and bankruptcy prediction methods have been utilizing Altman's $z$ score method for the last several years. It is reported in many studies that $z$ score is sensitive to changes in accounting figures. Researches have proposed different variations to conventional $z$ score that can improve the prediction accuracy. In this paper we develop a new multivariate non-linear model for...

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Published / Preprint: A Directional Multivariate Value at Risk. (arXiv:1502.00908v1 [q-fin.RM])

Posted: 03 Feb 2015 05:37 PM PST

In economics, insurance and finance, value at risk (VaR) is a widely used measure of the risk of loss on a specific portfolio of financial assets. For a given portfolio, time horizon, and probability $\alpha$, the $100\alpha\%$ VaR is defined as a threshold loss value, such that the probability that the loss on the portfolio over the given time horizon exceeds this value is...

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Google Brain’s Co-Inventor Tells Why He’s Building Chinese Neural Networks

Posted: 03 Feb 2015 02:29 AM PST

Google Brain's Co-inventor Tells Why He's Building Chinese Neural Networks http://t.co/KitA7CkhEB — moneyscience (@moneyscience) February 3, 2015

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Published / Preprint: Wall Street Occupations

Posted: 02 Feb 2015 11:25 PM PST

Many finance jobs entail the risk of large losses, and hard-to-monitor effort. We analyze the equilibrium consequences of these features in a model with optimal dynamic contracting. We show that finance jobs feature high compensation, up-or-out promotion and long work hours, and are more attractive than other jobs. Moral hazard problems are exacerbated in booms, even though pay increases....

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Blog Post: WealthandCapitalMarketsBlog: Fidelity Buys eMoney Advisor, But Is It Too Much to Chew?

Posted: 02 Feb 2015 07:06 PM PST

The wolves have been circling eMoney Advisor for some time now. But it is Fidelity Investments,  and not some pinstriped P/E firm, that has gobbled up the financial planning lamb. Should we be surprised?read more...

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Published / Preprint: Worldwide clustering of the corruption perception. (arXiv:1502.00104v1 [q-fin.EC])

Posted: 02 Feb 2015 05:47 PM PST

We inspect a possible clustering structure of the corruption perception among 134 countries. Using the average linkage clustering, we uncover a well-defined hierarchy in the relationships among countries. Four main clusters are identified and they suggest that countries worldwide can be quite well separated according to their perception of corruption. Moreover, we find a strong connection between...

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Published / Preprint: Power-law correlations in finance-related Google searches, and their cross-correlations with volatility and traded volume: Evidence from the Dow Jones Industrial components. (arXiv:1502.00225v1 [q-fin.ST])

Posted: 02 Feb 2015 05:47 PM PST

We study power-law correlations properties of the Google search queries for Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) component stocks. Examining the daily data of the searched terms with a combination of the rescaled range and rescaled variance tests together with the detrended fluctuation analysis, we show that the searches are in fact power-law correlated with Hurst exponents between 0.8 and 1.1....

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Published / Preprint: Optimal Derivative Liquidation Timing Under Path-Dependent Risk Penalties. (arXiv:1502.00358v1 [q-fin.MF])

Posted: 02 Feb 2015 05:47 PM PST

This paper studies the risk-adjusted optimal timing to liquidate an option at the prevailing market price. In addition to maximizing the expected discounted return from option sale, we incorporate a path-dependent risk penalty based on shortfall or quadratic variation of the option price up to the liquidation time. We establish the conditions under which it is optimal to immediately liquidate or...

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Vendor News: February 2, 2015 - SS&C Technologies to Acquire Advent Software

Posted: 02 Feb 2015 01:56 PM PST

Blog Post: iMFdirect: Disinflation in EU Countries outside the Eurozone

Posted: 02 Feb 2015 07:31 AM PST

By Plamen Iossifov and Jiri Podpieraread more...

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Published / Preprint: 02Feb/Guidance on accounting for expected credit losses issued by the Basel Committee

Posted: 02 Feb 2015 05:26 AM PST

Press release about the Basel Committee issuing guidance on accounting for expected credit losses (2 February 2015).

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Inheritance: how Britain’s wealthy still keep it in the family

Posted: 02 Feb 2015 03:22 AM PST

The "elasticity" of intergenerational wealth is a remarkably stable http://t.co/QIgMSoWfgI — Risk Management (@Risk_Mgmt) February 2, 2015

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The Storrs Lectures: Behavioral Economics and Paternalism by Cass R. Sunstein :: SSRN

Posted: 02 Feb 2015 02:14 AM PST

Behavioral economics and paternalism (with reference to Mill and Hayek). http://t.co/zRsF4ryXqk — Cass Sunstein (@CassSunstein) February 1, 2015

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