Saturday, October 13, 2012

MoneyScience News

MoneyScience News


Blog Post: PatrickBurns: US market portrait 2012 week 42

Posted: 13 Oct 2012 02:37 AM PDT

US large cap market returns.read more...

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Blog Post: TheAlephBlog: Forest Fires and Central Banking

Posted: 12 Oct 2012 10:44 PM PDT

We can create a force that eliminates forest fires, but there will be a cost.  A certain amount of forest fires are normal, and if we don’t have small forest fires, we will have big ones that happen infrequently, and cause a lot of damage.read more...

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Published / Preprint: A Message from the Editor

Posted: 12 Oct 2012 08:56 AM PDT

Published / Preprint: Executive Summaries

Posted: 12 Oct 2012 08:56 AM PDT

Published / Preprint: Is Economic Growth Good for Investors?1

Posted: 12 Oct 2012 08:33 AM PDT

When measured over long periods of time, the correlation of countries' inflation‐adjusted per capita GDP growth and stock returns is negative. This result holds for both developed countries (for which the correlation coefficient is â€"0.39 using data from 1900â€"2011) and emerging markets (the correlation is â€"0.41 over the period 1988â€"2011). And this means that investors would have been...

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Published / Preprint: Blinded by Growth

Posted: 12 Oct 2012 08:33 AM PDT

Everybody loves a growth story. But that does not make growth by itself a good investment thesis. Fast‐growing countries and their companies often produce low returns for investors, and slow‐growing ones sometimes produce high returns.read more...

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Published / Preprint: Valuation with Market Multiples: How to Avoid Pitfalls When Identifying and Using Comparable Companies1

Posted: 12 Oct 2012 08:33 AM PDT

An important part of the market multiple valuation process is selecting companies for comparison that are really comparable to the company being valued. The goal of assessing comparability is to align the relevant value driversâ€"especially risk and growthâ€"of the comparable companies with those of the company being valued.read more...

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Published / Preprint: Excess Cash and Shareholder Payout Strategies

Posted: 12 Oct 2012 08:33 AM PDT

On March 19, 2012, Apple announced a program to distribute its “excess” cash to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks. This announcement followed a pattern that is remarkably similar to the one leading up to Microsoft's announcement in 2004. Likewise IBM, the bluest of blue chips, made a path‐breaking decision to initiate share buybacks in the 1980s. And as recently as...

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Published / Preprint: Toward RealâTime Financial Reporting: How to Reduce Investors' Information Gap and the Cost of Capital

Posted: 12 Oct 2012 08:33 AM PDT

Public companies are struggling to provide detailed and accurate guidance in a turbulent world. Many have dropped guidance altogether, or substantially reduced the precision of their guidance. However, they pay a price for the resulting increase in investor uncertainty in the form of a higher cost of capital and reduced equity valuations.read more...

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Published / Preprint: Pitfalls in Levering and Unlevering Beta and Cost of Capital Estimates in DCF Valuations1

Posted: 12 Oct 2012 08:33 AM PDT

The “levering” and “unlevering” of estimates of beta and various costs of capital are routine steps in estimating the discount rates used in DCF valuations. But as the authors demonstrate by reviewing the existing research on the subject, the levering and unlevering formulas that are most commonly used in practice are not appropriate for valuing many companies. They also illustrate the...

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Published / Preprint: An Entrepreneur's Guide to Understanding the Cost of Venture Capital

Posted: 12 Oct 2012 08:33 AM PDT

Entrepreneurs who deal with a venture capital firm (VC) for the first time often find themselves unprepared for the experience. The deal structure language used to describe financing terms, and the methods used to value the investment, are unique to the VC world.read more...

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Published / Preprint: Corporate Governance and the Cost of Capital: Evidence from Australian Companies

Posted: 12 Oct 2012 08:33 AM PDT

The authors examine a sample of large Australian companies over a 10‐year period with the aim of analyzing the role that firm‐level corporate governance mechanisms such as insider ownership and independent boards play in explaining a company's cost of capital. The Australian corporate system offers a unique environment for assessing the impact of corporate governance mechanisms. Australian...

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Published / Preprint: Assessing Project Risk

Posted: 12 Oct 2012 08:33 AM PDT

Finding the appropriate discount rate, or cost of capital, for evaluating investment projects requires an accurate estimate of project risk. This can be challenging because project risk cannot be estimated directly using the CAPM, but must instead be inferred from a set of traded securities, typically the equity betas of comparable firms in the same industry. These equity betas are then unlevered...

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Published / Preprint: The Terminal Value and Inflation Controversy

Posted: 12 Oct 2012 08:33 AM PDT

This journal recently published what was effectively a debate between Gunther Friedl and Bernhard Schwetzler (hereafter “F&S”), on the one hand, and Michael Bradley and Gregg Jarrell (“B&J”). B&J initiated the first round of the debate by criticizing the constant growth valuation model, commonly known as the “Constant Growth Model” or “Gordon Growth Model.” The Gordon...

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Blog Post: Falkenblog: OptionMetric User Conference Monday

Posted: 12 Oct 2012 07:08 AM PDT

The 2012 OptionMetrics Users Conference is Monday, October 15, at the New York Society of Securities Analysts Conference Center, Times Square, New York. I'll be speaking Monday at noon, but there are 4 different sessions each with 3 speakers discussing various strategies and tactics. See details here. 

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