Saturday, February 28, 2015

MoneyScience News

MoneyScience News


Meet the man who could own Aviva France | FT Alphaville

Posted: 27 Feb 2015 02:34 PM PST

Max-Hervé George has a contract. It lets him turn back the clock, to invest with perfect hindsight week after week http://t.co/ismunK6sWJ — moneyscience…

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Blog Post: TheFinancialServicesClub: The role of the bank branch in the digital age

Posted: 27 Feb 2015 01:07 AM PST

I tweeted yesterday that bank branches are still important as, for many, digital only is too nerve wracking when it comes to money.  I knew it would get some pushback, and it did, but here’s the logic and how this started.read more...

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Published / Preprint: Comparing systemic risk in European government bonds and national indices. (arXiv:1502.07367v1 [q-fin.ST])

Posted: 26 Feb 2015 05:36 PM PST

It has been shown, that the systemic risk contained in financial markets can be indicated by the change of cross-correlation between different indices and stocks. This change is tracked by using principle component analysis (PCA). We use this technique to investigate the systemic risk contained in European economy by comparing government long term bonds and indices.

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Published / Preprint: Rational Multi-Curve Models with Counterparty-Risk Valuation Adjustments. (arXiv:1502.07397v1 [q-fin.MF])

Posted: 26 Feb 2015 05:36 PM PST

We develop a multi-curve term structure setup in which the modelling ingredients are expressed by rational functionals of Markov processes. We calibrate to LIBOR swaptions data and show that a rational two-factor lognormal multi-curve model is sufficient to match market data with accuracy. We elucidate the relationship between the models developed and calibrated under a risk-neutral measure Q and...

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Published / Preprint: Dynamics of quasi-stationary systems: Finance as an example. (arXiv:1502.07522v1 [q-fin.ST])

Posted: 26 Feb 2015 05:36 PM PST

We propose a combination of cluster analysis and stochastic process analysis to characterize high-dimensional complex dynamical systems by few dominating variables. As an example, stock market data are analyzed for which the dynamical stability as well as transitions between different stable states are found. This combined method also allows to set up new criteria for merging clusters to simplify...

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Published / Preprint: Well-Posedness and Comparison Principle for Option Pricing with Switching Liquidity. (arXiv:1502.07622v1 [q-fin.MF])

Posted: 26 Feb 2015 05:36 PM PST

We consider an integro-differential equation derived from a system of coupled parabolic PDE and an ODE which describes an European option pricing with liquidity shocks. We study the well-posedness and prove comparison principle for the corresponding initial value problem.

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Published / Preprint: Developing Knowledge States: Technology and the Enhancement of National Statistical Capacity. (arXiv:1502.07625v1 [q-fin.GN])

Posted: 26 Feb 2015 05:36 PM PST

National statistical systems are the enterprises tasked with collecting, validating and reporting societal attributes. These data serve many purposes - they allow governments to improve services, economic actors to traverse markets, and academics to assess social theories. National statistical systems vary in quality, especially in developing countries. This study examines determinants of...

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Blog Post: iMFdirect: Fiscal Impact of Lower Oil Prices on Latin America and the Caribbean

Posted: 26 Feb 2015 08:16 AM PST

By Robert Rennhack and Fabián Valenciaread more...

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Blog Post: ThePracticalQuant: Topic Models: Past, Present, Future

Posted: 26 Feb 2015 07:57 AM PST

Subscribe to the O’Reilly Data Show Podcastread more...

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Published / Preprint: 26Feb/Quantitative disclosure standards for central counterparties issued by CPMI and IOSCO

Posted: 26 Feb 2015 07:05 AM PST

Press release about CPMI and IOSCO issuing Quantitative disclosure standards for central counterparties (26 February 2015)

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Published / Preprint: 26Feb/Implementation monitoring of the PFMI: Level 2 assessments for central counterparties and trade repositories in the European Union, Japan and the United States

Posted: 26 Feb 2015 07:05 AM PST

Press release about CPMI and IOSCO issuing the Implementation monitoring of the PFMI: Level 2 assessments for central counterparties and trade repositories in the European Union, Japan and the United States

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Published / Preprint: Model risk on credit risk. (arXiv:1502.06984v1 [q-fin.RM])

Posted: 25 Feb 2015 05:36 PM PST

This paper develops the Jungle model in a credit portfolio framework. The Jungle model is able to model credit contagion, produce doubly-peaked probability distributions for the total default loss and endogenously generate quasi phase transitions, potentially leading to systemic credit events which happen unexpectedly and without an underlying single cause. We show the Jungle model provides the...

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Published / Preprint: Estimation of Several Political Action Effects of Energy Prices. (arXiv:1502.07265v1 [stat.AP])

Posted: 25 Feb 2015 05:36 PM PST

One important effect of price shocks in the United States has been increased political attention paid to the structure and performance of oil and natural gas markets, along with some governmental support for energy conservation. This paper describes how price changes helped lead the emergence of a political agenda accompanied by several interventions, as revealed through Granger causality tests...

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Published / Preprint: An Ordinal Pattern Approach to Detect and to Model Leverage Effects and Dependence Structures Between Financial Time Series. (arXiv:1502.07321v1 [q-fin.ST])

Posted: 25 Feb 2015 05:36 PM PST

We introduce two types of ordinal pattern dependence between time series. Positive (resp. negative) ordinal pattern dependence can be seen as a non-paramatric and in particular non-linear counterpart to positive (resp. negative) correlation. We show in an explorative study that both types of this dependence show up in real world financial data.

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